On Free Will

"It’s almost incomprehensible to consider that there could be a mathematical expression that explains mass human behavior. That is the most fascinating aspect of the Wave Principle. People are a long way from accepting it as a possibility in the social sciences. Still, this is not determinism. As individuals, we can unquestionably exert free will. But the style of behavior of the crowd is entirely different from that of an individual. It is based upon unconscious mental processes, not reason... Collective psychology is impulsive, self- generating, self-sustaining and self-reversing. Almost everyone believes that social actions cause changes in social psychology. If that is true, then events must be so perfectly determined that they create the Elliott wave patterns we see in the markets. For people to claim that the latest idea from the White House...or the latest statistic on the trade deficit or earnings or war or natural disaster has any effect on the market’s pattern, that such things are determinants of stock prices in any way, is suggesting a far more radical view of the harmony of the universe than I am. In other words, to argue that events cause the state of social psychology is to argue that events are patterned, which is determinism. In that case, free will is invalid, in which case no one could make money from the Wave Principle, which we have shown can be done. On the other hand, if social psychology guides the tenor of social actions, then it is only mass psychology, which is apparently a process governed by the unconscious mind, that need be patterned to produce structure in markets."

Bob Prechter

Déjà vu

February 2, 1930: Market Recovering Faster Than Expected

February 2, 1930: Banks Have Started Hiring Again

February 5, 1930: The Cash On The Sidelines Is Coming Back!

February 7, 1930: Easy Money Driving Recovery

February 9, 1930: "New Era" Not Over Yet!

February 28, 1930: Uh Oh, The Market's Getting Overbought

March 4, 1930: That Wasn't A Crash--It Was Just A Dip!

March 6-7, 1930: More Easy Money

March 7, 1930: The Crash Wasn't So Bad After All

March 9, 1930: Unemployment Is Finally Under Control

March 12, 1930: But What Happens If Foreigners Stop Financing Us?

March 22, 1930: Is It A New Bull Market Or A Sucker's Rally?

March 26, 1930: The New Bull Market Is Great For Business

April 16, 1930: But Wait, Are The Fundamentals Really That Good?

...they just can´t kill the (bull) beast...

14 Burbujas.....

Crisis de Confianza New Currency

By Jonathan Tirone

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s role in international
trade should be reduced by establishing a new currency to
protect emerging markets from the “confidence game” of
financial speculation, the United Nations said.

UN countries should agree on the creation of a global
reserve bank to issue the currency and to monitor the national
exchange rates of its members, the Geneva-based UN Conference on
Trade and Development said today in a report.

China, India, Brazil and Russia this year called for a
replacement to the dollar as the main reserve currency after the
financial crisis sparked by the collapse of the U.S. mortgage
market led to the worst global recession since World War II.
China, the world’s largest holder of dollar reserves, said a
supranational currency such as the International Monetary Fund’s
special drawing rights, or SDRs, may add stability.

“There’s a much better chance of achieving a stable
pattern of exchange rates in a multilaterally-agreed framework
for exchange-rate management,” Heiner Flassbeck, co-author of
the report and a UNCTAD director, said in an interview from
Geneva. “An initiative equivalent to Bretton Woods or the
European Monetary System is needed.”

The 1944 Bretton Woods agreement created the modern global
economic system and institutions including the IMF and World
Bank.

Enhanced SDRs

While it would be desirable to strengthen SDRs, a unit of
account based on a basket of currencies, it wouldn’t be enough
to aid emerging markets most in need of liquidity, said
Flassbeck, a former German deputy finance minister who worked in
1997-1998 with then U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence
Summers to contain the Asian financial crisis.

Emerging-market countries are underrepresented at the IMF,
hindering the effectiveness of enhanced SDR allocations, the UN
said. An organization should be created to manage real exchange
rates between countries measured by purchasing power and
adjusted to inflation differentials and development levels, it
said.

“The most important lesson of the global crisis is that
financial markets don’t get prices right,” Flassbeck said.
“Governments are being tempted by the resulting confidence game
catering to financial-market participants who have shown they’re
inept at assessing risk.”

The 45-year-old UN group, run by former World Trade
Organization chief Supachai Panitchpakdi, “promotes integration
of developing countries in the world economy,” according to its
Web site. Emerging-market nations should consider restricting
capital mobility until a new system is in place, the group said.

The world body began issuing warnings in 2006 about
financial imbalances leading to a global recession.

The UN Trade and Development report is being held for
release via print media until 6 p.m. London time.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Jonathan Tirone in Vienna at
jtirone@bloomberg.net

EW S&P 2010/2012

From S2.
at http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/

Obviously, even if I'm right about the 450ish or 300ish or lower price targets in 2010-2011, the path could vary wildly from my projection, and I reserve the right to adjust it. However, in the short-term, my expectations are that the 979 price pivot area and uptrend line from 667 will cause temporary bounces in the short-term with 850-950 seeing a number of gyrations into end of year. The down move could be faster but 850-950 has such historical significance and price-volume action going back to the last recession and even the 1990s,

Regardless, when the 850 area finally breaks, that is when I think SPX will enter the heart of 3 of 3/C down slowing down near 667-741 but ultimately punching through to 550-600 at the end of wave 3 of 3/C and then reaching a final panic wave 5 of /C3 down to 450ish or 300ish in fall 2010. The subsequent bounce and drop would likely retrace much of the low as part of wave 1-2 or A-B in early 2011 before dragging higher into summer 2011 and possibly setting yet another new low to 350, 200 or lower if SPX needs to complete a 5th wave down from October 2007 rather than just an ABC.

The FED Feeds

1929 vs 2009

From Tony Caldaro
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/

LONG TERM: bear market
We are currently in a Supercycle, or best case Cycle, bear market. Historically, in the US, these types of bear markets last anywhere from 23 months (1973-1974) and 60 months (1937-1942). The Supercycle bear market of 1929-1932 lasted 34 months. Outside of the US, Japan has been in a Supercycle bear market for 20 years (1989-....). The decline from the October 07 high to the recent March 09 low took seventeen months. If the Supercycle/Cycle bear market ended there it would be the shortest on record. Most of these types of bear markets unfold in three waves. In the first wave the market loses about 50% of its value, confirming the degree of the bear market. Lesser degree bear markets do not lose this much value. The second wave rallies about 50% from the lows, giving hope that the bear market is over. Then during the third wave the market loses another 50% of its value, and this usually ends it. From Oct07 (SPX 1576) to Mar09 (SPX 667) the SPX lost 58% of its value, we labeled this decline as Primary wave A. Over the past five months the SPX has rallied 54% to 1028 on friday. We have been labeling this entire rally as Primary wave B. Wave B rallies, in this type of bear market usually rally 50% off the lows, and can even retrace 50% of the decline, i.e. 1929-1932 and 1937-1942. Upon completion of Primary wave B the next wave down, Primary C takes hold. In the 1937-1942 Cycle bear market, it retested the lows. In the 1929-1932 Supercycle bear market, it paused at the lows and then broke much lower. Currently we favor the latter scenario.
We have been monitoring the relationship between a more recent bear market and our current bear market. In that bear market one Primary downwave took seventeen months, the other Primary downwave took ten months, and there was a five month Primary upwave in between. Our bear market is following the same track: Primary A seventeen months, Primary B five months so far. Should this relationship continue, our Primary wave B should end this month, and Primary wave C should bottom in June 2010. Also of note, in the historical model, both Primary downwaves wiped out an equal percentage of market value. This would suggest that the SPX will lose another 58% of its value from the Primary wave B high, during Primary C. Primary wave A wiped out 58% of market value.
During Primary wave B we have maintained an upside target of between SPX 1002 (50% rally), and SPX 1122 (50% retracement). We projected these levels when the SPX was in the low 700's in March. It appeared quite outrageous to most at the time as bearish sentiment was abundant. Now that we have reached the targeted range the tables have turned. Bullish sentiment is quite abundant. In fact, one of our OEW members Martin N. alerted us to the Aug09 Merrill Lynch portfolio manager survey. Fund managers are the most bullish they have been since November 2003, and their expectations for corporate profits are the best since January 2004. That was the top of Primary wave III in the last bull market: http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/stories/2009/08/17/daily55.html?ana=from_rss. This is the appropriate level of bullishness to end a Primary wave. When Primary C gets underway in earnest most will be stunned. Personally, I hate to see people lose money. So please feel free to post part or all of this weekend update wherever you wish.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend makes new highs
Primary wave A took the form of a detailed zigzag. It divided into three Major waves: A (Mar 08 SPX 1257), B (May 08 SPX 1440) and C (Mar 09 SPX 667). Since Primary wave B is a counter rally to the overall bear market trend, we expected it to unfold as a zigzag as well, with three Major waves, and it has: A SPX 956, B SPX 869 and C underway with SPX 1028 the current high. To further confirm that Primary wave B is corrective, and not impulsive as in bull markets. Each of the three Major waves have unfolded as zigzags as well. Major wave A: Intermediate wave A (SPX 833), wave B (SPX 780) and wave C (SPX 956). Major wave B was a simple zigzag between SPX 956 and SPX 869. Major wave C: Intermediate wave A (SPX 1018), wave B (SPX 879) and wave C underway. Since all of these Intermediate waves, that formed the three Major waves, have been five wave structures. We're expecting Intermediate wave C, of Major wave C, of Primary wave B, to also be a five wave structure. In EW terms Primary wave B would be called a double zigzag: 5-3-5-x-5-3-5.
Nearly everyone of the Intermediate waves in the entire bear market, and all of the Major waves have ended at/near long term OEW pivots. Especially during the uptrends. The next long term OEW pivot is at SPX 1041. This area would meet the minimum requirements for the Primary wave B structure, and fits well within the overall bear market structure. In this OEW 1041 pivot area the current Intermediate wave C would equal 38.2% of Intermediate wave A, and the entire Major wave C would equal 61.8% of Major wave A. Should the market dodge the bear market bullet next week, the next long term OEW pivot is at SPX 1107.
In reviewing the charts we noticed some additional technical evidence of an impending Primary wave B top. We already mentioned the confirmed downtrend in China, which has actually been leading world markets higher, it bottomed with Brazil in Nov08. Also, all the Asian markets were lower this week while western markets made new highs. We also noticed, in no order of importance, the following:
1. Corporate bond risk gapped up for the week, for the first time since Sept/Oct08.
2. The (BDI) Baltic Dry Index, which led the markets higher, has been downtrending for over two months, and
3. The put/call ratio hit its most dangerous daily level and weekly levels since Dec07, illustrating extreme speculator bullishness.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX is now at 1018 and then 990, with resistance at 1041 and then 1061. Short term momentum is extremely overbought. As noted above, Intermediate wave C of Major wave C should unfold in five waves. From the recent Intermediate wave B low (SPX 979) on monday, we're counting the rally to SPX 991 on tuesday as Minor wave 1, and the pullback to SPX 981 on wednesday as Minor wave 2. The rally from that low certainly looks like a third wave, and we're labeling it Minor wave 3. Early next week we expect a small pullback for Minor wave 4, and then a rally to the OEW 1041 pivot for Minor wave 5. This should conclude Primary wave B. Should the SPX break through the 1041 pivot (SPX 1049), then a further push to the 1061 pivot would appear likely. Remember, we're expecting Primary wave B to end this month. If it does not, then an extended Major wave C is most likely underway.

Bob Prechter Bloomberg 14-8-2009

Step aside

In late February, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International said "cover your shorts," and predicted a sharp rally that would take the S&P into the 1000 to 1100 range.

With that prediction having come to pass, Prechter is now saying investors should "step aside" from long positions, and speculators should "start looking at the short side."

"The big question is whether the rally is over," Prechter says, suggesting "countertrend moves can be tricky" to predict. But the veteran market watcher is "quite sure the next wave down is going to be larger than what we've already experienced," and take major averages well below their March 2009 lows.

Como detectar un Top o Bottom ?

Las opiniones radicales o extremas que son compartidas por las masas de manera generalizada representan el indicador mas confiable que existe para anticipar o pronosticar un cambio de direccion en un mercado o situacion cualquiera.

Esta es la base de la Socionomia.

Market Leads FED Follows

June 16, 2009 - 1:00 ET

By John Parry

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market.

Fears about the long-term vulnerability of the prized U.S. credit rating came to the fore after Standard & Poor's in May lowered its outlook on Britain, threatening the UK's top AAA rating. That move raised fears that the United States could face a similar risk, with the hefty amounts of government debt issued in both countries to pay for financial rescues causing budget deficits to swell.

Prechter, speaking at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York, said he sees investors' confidence in an economic rebound fading, a trend that will drag the S&P 500 stock index .SPX well below the March 6 intraday low of 666.79 by the end of this year or early next.

"There will be a leg down in stock prices, and it will affect all other areas," including corporate bonds and commodities, said Prechter

Despite the government and Federal Reserve's massive rescues for financial companies and securities markets, Prechter expects credit markets to clam up again as they did in the first phase of the global financial crisis and for the U.S. economy to sink into a depression.

Although U.S. banks' recently passed government "stress tests" that assessed the adequacy of their capital levels to absorb losses and have been able to raise some capital in debt and equity markets, "the banking sector is in severe trouble," as more loans turn bad, he said.

The economy "is obviously heading toward a depression," despite the government's efforts to dodge one, said Prechter.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has not averted a re-run of the 1930s Great Depression, even though investors are becoming firmly convinced that the Fed has avoided disaster and that the economy has hit bottom.

"It's the next leg down (in stocks) that will make it clear that these things are not true," Prechter said.

Bonos del Tesoro a Largo Plazo

Al parecer ya se ha llegado a un techo al menos de mediano plazo para las tasas de interes de los bonos del tesoro a largo plazo.

Nos posicionamos en Strips esperando una caida de al menos 50 puntos base lo que representa un 10% de alza en el precio de los Strips...

2007 Wall Street

Usted se encuentra aqui...Elliott Wave al 5 de marzo 2009

OPCION A (Favorecida)

Falta todavia un poquito mas para abajo, estamos en onda 3 de 5 de 1, falta ver la onda 4 de 5 de 1 hacia arriba y luego la 5 de 5 de 1.

Despues de esto ya empieza una recuperacion de 3 movimientos (a,b,c) que va a durar algunos meses....probablemente hasta septiembre/octubre del 2009, este periodo va a tener movimientos eraticos y muy dificiles de seguir, pero al final del periodo habra ganancias en la bolsa de mas del 35% DESDE EL MINIMO....para agarrar el minimo hay que tener mucha suerte o muy buen calculo fibonacci, mi estimado de piso son los 600 puntos en el S&P , asi es que para poder entrar hay que buscar esos niveles, o en su defecto, entrar justo en el proximo momento en que se de un nuevo minimo de CIERRE por abajo del minomo INTRADIA tocado el dia de hoy...


Opcion B (GRAFICO de aariba)

Ya termino todo el ajuste hoy o mañana a niveles de 660-680 asi que este seria el momento para entrar....

Le doy 65% O MAS de probabilidades a la opcion A y 35% O MENOS a la opcion B

Costo-beneficio vale la pena esperar a ver si se dan los 600 puntos, si no....en el momento en que el S&P toque 800 puntos SE CONFIRMA la recuperacion de varios meses.

Stimulus Package Released

Sentimiento de Mercado y Tops & Bottoms

Cortesia www.elliottwave.com

Acciones con altos Dividendos

Bob Prechter Bloomberg Appearances

Stock Market Crash: On the Twentieth Anniversary of Black Monday

2007, October 19

U.S. Recession and Credit Inflation and Deflation

2007, November 27

Prechter says Dow-Gold Ratio Shows U.S. in a Bear Market


2008, February 27

Gold and Silver Bear Market Forecast

2008, March 19

Deflation NOT Inflation in Metals and Oil

2008, May 7

Bear Market in U.S. Stocks, Credit, Real Estate


2008, June 25

Deflation: Falling Fannie, Freddie, Silver, Gold, Corn, Wheat Confirm Deflationary Outlook

2008, August 20

Elliott Wave's Prechter Expects Volatile 'Bear' Market

2008, October 29

Are you ready, skee-daddy?

Listos para OTRA decada perdida?

Socionomia

Las opiniones radicales o extremas que son compartidas por las masas de manera generalizada representan el indicador mas confiable que existe para anticipar o pronosticar un cambio de direccion en un mercado o situacion cualquiera.

Esta es la base de la Socionomia.

El Sistema Financiero Americano

Non-Borrowed Reserves of Depository Institutions
Frequency: Monthly     Units: Billions of Dollars
Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted     Last Updated: 2009-01-16 11:24 AM CST

Main Page
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOGNONBR

View Data Page
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOGNONBR/viewdata

Download Data:

Excel Format
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOGNONBR/downloaddata/BOGNONBR.xls

Termino la Onda IV , Comienza la Onda V

Si esta Onda V que recien empieza es EXTENDIDA, habra que tener mucha paciencia, vamos a nuevos minimos antes de ver una recuperacion razonable.

La Onda IV fue un triangulo, dificil y tedioso.

2009

WASHINGTON – The nation's unemployment rate bolted to 7.2 percent in December, the highest level in 16 years, as nervous employers slashed 524,000 jobs, capping one of the worst years in modern history for American workers.

This year has gotten off to a rough start with a flurry of big corporate layoffs, pointing to another year of hefty job reductions.

"There is no end in sight in terms of layoffs," said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. "January could be worse because some companies put layoffs on hold because of holiday sensitivities."

Not only are employers slashing jobs; they also are cutting workers' hours and forcing some into part-time work. The average work week in December fell to 33.3 hours, the lowest level on records dating to 1964